Pharma Industry Trends to Watch in 2023
Are things "normal" yet? Despite the pandemic receding into the background, the world still seems to be more unpredictable than ever. It can be tricky to forecast trends and issues for the next year in that environment, but we aren't letting that stop us. So if you're preparing for a brand or indication launch in 2023 or 2024, here are some emerging issues to keep an eye on:
Fewer new drugs in the market: Approvals were down almost 45% in 2022 from the previous two years, and we anticipate that will continue both because of the slowdown in trials and because fewer drugs are clearing the high bar that the FDA seems to be holding for approval. Combine that with a number of companies withdrawing indications that received accelerated approval but failed to confirm their efficacy with a Phase 3 trial, and we could see a marked slowdown in launches and new drug promotion.
Flexible execution is a competitive advantage: The most obvious place this is coming into play is clinical trial design and execution. Hybrid and decentralized trial designs will continue to grow in popularity as they lower the bar for participation and allow for more inclusive trials. With the FDA encouraging trial sponsors to submit a "Race and Ethnicity Diversity Plan" for trials, being able to find that a more diverse group of participants can improve the real-world applicability of trial results and potentially increase the chance of approval. From a marketing perspective, we also expect companies--especially startups commercializing their first or second asset--to prioritize flexible launch planning that lets them adjust to changing timelines and submission requirements. (Building those flexible plans is something we focus on, so if you're embarking on that process, let's talk!)
Headwinds from the Inflation Reduction Act: The Inflation Reduction Act has multiple provisions, one of which allows Medicare to negotiate the price of some high-cost, single-source prescription drugs. It will also require drugmakers to pay a rebate to Medicare if they raise prices too sharply, essentially putting a price cap on certain drugs. Some of our colleagues in the industry are already questioning the potential of some assets in their pipeline in this more challenging environment. The IRA also reduces the incentive to conduct additional trials on an already-approved asset, which could harm oncology companies in particular, as their development plans often involve pursuing a relatively small initial indication, then conducting additional trials in larger, more competitive indications. This may also make it harder for some pre-commercial companies to raise funds.
Inclusive marketing helps grow brands: The increasing focus on disparities in health outcomes has encouraged pharma companies to take a critical look at how they promote their brands, and how they maximize access for all people who could benefit from their products. Building more inclusive marketing plans is more than just the right thing to do, though, it is also a potentially powerful driver of the bottom line. Creating promotions and programs that are relevant for people of different races, backgrounds, education levels, and socioeconomic strata (among other things) helps brands grow their market and more effectively meet the needs of HCPs prescribing their products. Modern omnichannel tactics can be effectively applied to make a brand's marketing more inclusive and more effective.
We hope these predictions will help inform your marketing plans for next year and beyond. Best wishes for a wonderful end of the year and a successful 2023.